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The AI paradox: How robots are making work more human

Posted by Economic Impact on Mar 19, 2018 11:05:36 AM

Over the next decade, a great wave of technological change will wash through the economy, transforming the nature of work and the shape of the labour market. In a recent study we carried out in partnership with Cisco, we built a brand-new modelling framework to explore the implications of this change in a more comprehensive way than ever before. We simulated the real-world dynamics of technological change and its interaction with the labour market and found that 6.5 million US workers will have to seek out a new profession over the next decade.

But what significance does that number have? Our bottom-up approach to understanding the evolution of the labour market around this technology trend enables us to identify what needs to be done to meet the needs of the future economy. After all, at the macroeconomic level, our ability to take advantage of the opportunities technology presents will be defined by how smoothly those 6.5 million workers make the transition from the old to the new.

Here are our seven key implications for the future of work:

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Understanding the role of mobile technology in economic growth

Posted by Economic Impact on Mar 3, 2017 12:08:59 PM

Recent years have seen startling growth in the reach of mobile technology. Such growth has been truly ‘global’ with vast investment in mobile infrastructure, supporting increased network coverage across emerging markets in all six continents. The impact of this extends far beyond convenience and consumer choice. Mobile internet technologies are transforming product and labour markets the world over. They are helping to propel ideas, connect businesses and customers and match workers to opportunities.

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Topics: Economic impact, Technology, Global economics, Business and economic outlook, Emerging markets

Forecasting criminal Legal Aid expenditure: 2017 update

Posted by Economic Impact on Feb 27, 2017 9:00:00 AM

The Law Society asked Oxford Economics to refresh its 2014 study to produce forecasts of criminal Legal Aid expenditure under alternative scenarios. A number of factors could affect Legal Aid expenditure over the next five years, including the volume of Legal Aid claims, the impact of policy changes, and the composition of the caseload. We produce a baseline forecast which assumes that crime and prosecution rates remain unchanged in future years, and compare this to alternative forecasts which allow crime and prosecution rates to evolve in line with recent trends. Under both alternative scenarios, expenditure falls—by almost £20 million under the first scenario and by £111 million in the second. We have also investigated what could happen to criminal Legal Aid expenditure if recent government reforms prove effective in reducing the time taken (and therefore costs) per case. Assuming a related cost saving of 2.5-5 percent, this could further reduce criminal Legal Aid expenditure in 2021/22 by between £15 million and £34 million, under the various scenarios.

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Topics: Economic impact, Business and economic outlook, Public policy and regulations, Government and education, Professional and business services

The economic impact of Gatwick Airport

Posted by Economic Impact on Jan 10, 2017 4:50:06 PM

Oxford Economics were appointed by the Gatwick Growth Board (GGB) to provide an independent assessment of Gatwick Airport's local, regional and national impact. The GGB was established in 2016 to examine the economic and social consequences of Gatwick Airport’s future plans for growth and expansion.

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Topics: Economic impact, Travel

Understanding the US-China Trade Relationship

Posted by Economic Impact on Jan 10, 2017 4:44:15 PM

The US-China Business Council commissioned Oxford Economics to assess the overall impact of the trade and economic relationship with China on the US economy. The study shows that today, the US-China trade relationship actually supports roughly 2.6 million jobs in the United States and, as the Chinese middle class continues its rapid expansion over the next decade, US companies face significant opportunities to tap into a new and lucrative customer base that can further boost employment and economic growth. 

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Topics: United States, Trade, China

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